Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
