Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
